Valuing Investments in Multi-Energy Generation Plants under Uncertainty: A Real Options Analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper, a valuation method for multi-energy generation plants is presented. The operational flexibility of such plants is modeled using the Energy Hub concept a modeling approach that has been developed in the ”Vision of Future Energy Networks”project at ETH Zurich. The economic value of an Energy Hub including its flexibility is calculated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation method that generates a large amount of possible price paths for the input and output energy carriers of the respective hub configuration. The proposed Energy Hub real options model can be used to identify prospective hub configurations for future energy systems given the uncertainty concerning the future development of energy prices. In illustrative examples, the method is applied to two different Energy Hub configurations. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses with respect to different parameters such as the discount rate or price volatilities are carried out.
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